There are four periods in any year that are bearish for US notes. These periods are in March, June, September, and in December. This applies to both US notes and to bonds. The same effect can be observed in Japan and in Europe.

Below, we see the annual average price behavior in the month of June since 1982 for the ten-year note. The bearish period in the next week stands out. From June 16 to 27, price has fallen about 74% of the time. In fact, Monday, the 20th has brought lower prices over 80% of the time.

Close out any short sale positions late in this coming week. Note in the second histogram below that July and August are the two strongest month in any year. A rally is likely to commence late in this month or in early July.


ly Expected Return of the 10-Year Note in June


Monthly Expected Return of the 10-Year Note


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *