Lower prices are likely. Bear market rallies come out of nowhere such as this one did in the last week. Projected turning points (PTPs) are derived from past highs and lows. The bullish call for last week was based upon a PTP on the 23rd and proved to be a low. There is another on the 30th, likely a high. And June, a bearish month, is right around the corner. This month is especially bearish at this point in the four-year election year cycle.

The trading recommendations are derived from the S&P 500 screen below. The first column is the seasonal rank for June. The second screen is that of the current relative strength. The third column is the combined rank. Because a decline is expected to resume next week, the table is inverted so that the weakest stocks are at the top.

S&P June Screen

Apple has weak relative strength and June has seasonally been the second weakest month of the year next to September. The stock has fallen about 56% of the time in June. The weekly cycle is falling and has been correct in seven of ten cases in the last year. Price may reach $135.

Apple Daily Graph

Weekly Cycle

PNC also turns up on the screen. The stock is relatively weak. The stock has fallen in 64% of all months of June since 1980. Price may fall below $170.

PNC Weekly Graph

PNC Annual Histogram


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