Here is how the month of December breaks down in terms of the odds of a higher market from four different views:
All Decembers: 68.5%
Election Year +2: 69.2%
Decennial Pattern: 61.8%
Both Election and Decennial Pattern: 66.7%
We can expect a higher market, especially in the second half of the month.
Here are the cycles-based trade recommendations for the DJIA stocks in this month. In November, the long trades returned an average of 4.8% versus a rise of 5.7% in the DJIA in comparison to a return of 6.3% for the short sales. Over the last 33 months, the long stocks have risen by an amount about 60% greater than that of the short sales and 28% over the DJIA. The short sales were net negative over that time period at -16%.
For this month, the cycle/relative strength concept is applied. First, the Dow Jones 30 stocks are ranked from the best performer to the worst by calculating the expected return in that month. The top stocks were screened as follows. The top best traditional performers in the month were then screened for relative strength by a unique measure that sorts by several relevant time periods. Those that pass both screens are buys for the month. The stocks that are both weak monthly performers and weak relative performers are short sales for the month.
Here are the top five long recommendations for this month:
Johnson & Johnson
Here are the top five short recommendations for this month: