Well it finally happened and those that follow me will have probably become bored of me droning on about the bitcoin crash and how it would be good value below $20,000, all the while it traded between $40,000 and $60,000.
As I write this it is $20,181.
I’ve been drawing the following chart for months. This was a recent incarnation:
But you will see the development of this idea here on Forbes amongst my postings, including the same theme on the U.S. stock markets.
Well all that doomster-ism has come to pass, but I’m not happy or gloating, I’m instead trying to define what happens next. That’s tricky because this is near the terminus of this crash and it’s easier to call a bear on an overheated market than get the absolute bottom.
Here is a summary of what I think happens next.
We hit a bottom around $13,000.
What may be left on the chart is a much lower number because the final capitulation can create a bottom that only lasts minutes and may be untradable. At these points exchanges seize up and you can buy or sell, but there will be a print. That could be as low as $8,000, but I’m expecting a stable sideways trend in the low teens.
There will then be a “crypto winter” for 18 months.
There will be great value to acquire then. The ether
Of course, lots of people have been burned horribly, but the first law of investing remains intact. Buy when everyone wants to sell and sell when everyone wants to buy.
Here we are, let the once greedy herd stampede for the exit and wait a while, then start to acquire in the aftermath.
The only question that needs to be answered is, has crypto got a future? The clear answer is yes. So the call will soon be back to picking good cryptos and acquiring them in a low risk way.
There will also be a period of failures in centralized crypto, so be aware that these times will risk, “not your keys, not your crypto” moments.
So the key is hold off for the bottom and then calmly take your time buying the aftermath of the crash. That aftermath will very likely give you plenty of time and plenty of opportunity to load up on crypto assets that will rocket in 2024/2025.