Me: “Alexa, tell me what will happen in 2023.”

Amazon AI: “Sorry, I can’t predict the future.”

As the ample supply of 2023 predictions affirms, humans still win in the futures market. Or maybe they are just not as modest as Alexa (or the Amazonians feeding it with answers to common queries).

Observes of the IT landscape and AI developments are certainly far from being modest, using their clear crystal balls to conjure numerous and varied predictions for what will happen in 2023. Here is a quick summary.

Automated software development

Forrester called AI that writes code “TuringBots” already two years ago when it was used only for software testing. Now it predicts that in 2023, TuringBots will write 10% of worldwide code and tests. As a result of the increasing automation of software development, IDC predicts that the job of a software developer will shift to more of a management and conductor role and will become highly complex. This will specifically impact the development of AI programs—IDC predicts that by 2024, most organizations will leverage codeless development tools for at least 30% of their AI and automation initiatives, “helping to scale digital transformation and democratize AI.”

Automated content and commerce

With Generative AI producing, in addition to software code, a variety of novel content such as images, video, music, speech and text, Gartner predicts that by 2025, 30% of outbound messages from large organizations will be synthetically generated. Forrester predicts that in 2023, 10% of Fortune 500 enterprises will generate content with AI tools, as “human-produced content-creation will never be fast enough to address the need for personalized content at scale.” IDC predicts that by 2026, the massive (>trillion parameter) foundation models behind this automated content development “will become standard industry utilities provided only by the largest vendors.”

Beyond content development, Gartner says CEOs and CIOs believe one-fifth of their total revenue could come from “machine customers” by 2030. These will be non-human economic actors that obtain goods or services in exchange for payment. By 2026, Gartner predicts, half of B2B buyers will interact with a digital human in a buying cycle. “Digital humans will take on tasks that humans don’t want to do, such as handling lead nurturing, old opportunities or leads that went nowhere.”

Enterprise governance, risk, sustainability and security

By 2026, predicts IDC, 75% of large enterprises will rely on AI-infused processes to enhance asset efficiency, streamline supply chains, and improve product quality across diverse and distributed environments.

With AI in every corner of the enterprise, mounting regulation and increasing demand for responsible AI will drive one in four CIOs and CTOs to lead AI governance for their companies, predicts Forrester. AI governance will become a board-level topic together with cybersecurity and compliance. Board reporting, says Forrester, will include “explainability, fairness audits of high-impact algorithmic decision-making, and environmental impacts of AI.”

IDC predicts that in response to sustainability and economic uncertainty concerns, 40% of theG2000 will adopt tooling to quantify, predict, and optimize the cost-benefit of their AI lifecycle by 2024. Gartner warns that without sustainable AI practices, by 2025 AI will “consume more energy than the human workforce, significantly offsetting carbon-zero gains.” If current AI practices remain unchanged, Gartner estimates that the energy needed for machine learning training and associated data storage and processing may account for up to 3.5% of global electricity consumption by 2030.

As AI models become strategic, model risk and governance will consume more business attention, until by 2025, 60% of G2000 CFOs will incorporate AI risks as part of their enterprise risk programs, predicts IDC.

Consumer interactions and experiences

65% of B2B marketers with conversation automation use AI-powered virtual assistants today to engage and enable customer and employee audiences, Forrester estimates. In 2023, companies will continue to experiment with AI personas as brand assets as companies seek to differentiate these conversational interactions by demonstrating respect and relevance for the customer.

Gartner estimates that there are approximately 17 million contact center agents worldwide today. 10% of agent interactions will be automated by 2026, Gartner predicts, an increase from an estimated 1.6% of interactions today that are automated using AI. By 2026, conversational AI deployments within contact centers will reduce agent labor costs by $80 billion.

Sponsored

In 2023, Forrester predicts, AI systems will use insurance coverage, diagnosis, location, availability, and cancellation risk factors to optimize healthcare scheduling workflows. The data will be used to fill costly gaps from last-minute cancellations as intelligent systems will reach out to waitlisted patients based on their predicted likelihood to respond. Solving this problem will reduce the 20.6 day average wait to see a physician by 25%, Forrester estimates—”Retail health will spearhead this initiative leading to seismic disruption and mounting pressure for traditional health care organizations to step up their patient experience.”

AI has become mainstream, with 73% of data and analytics decision-makers building AI technologies and 74% seeing a positive impact in their organizations, according to Forrester’s 2022 Data And Analytics Survey.

AI has also progressed by leaps and bounds. My dialogue with Alexa reported above shows considerable improvement over a similar dialogue at the end of 2018, when to my question regarding what will happen the next year, Alexa responded “Do you want to open ‘this day in history’?”

This may indicate a considerable improvement in the deployment of AI (on the part of Amazon, in this case), but over the last three years we have also witnessed a considerable improvement in the development of AI, leading to new (and surprising, given what we have learned from end-of-year predictions) capabilities.

Large language models, also called foundation models, led to a number of 2022 surprises. The most recent is ChatGPT, released on Nov. 30, which took only five days to pass one million users. Many of these users were software developers, enlisting ChatGPT’s help in solving their coding challenges.

“Stack Overflow, the go-to question-and-answer site for coders and programmers, has temporarily banned users from sharing responses generated by AI chatbot ChatGPT,” reported The Verge. “ChatGPT simply makes it too easy for users to generate responses and flood the site with answers that seem correct at first glance but are often wrong on close examination.”

A safe prediction for 2023 is that we will continue to be surprised by new AI hits and misses. A safe prediction for 2023 is what Oren Etzioni recently told the Wall Street Journal: “Six months from now, you’re going to see amazing things that you haven’t seen today.”

Sources

Forrester Predictions 2023: Artificial Intelligence

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Artificial Intelligence and Automation 2023 Predictions

Gartner The Top 10 strategic Technology Trends for 2023

Sponsored

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *